With 9 Weeks Left Till Elections, It’s Likud by a Nose

January 11, 2015  

Likud has edged past Labor in the poll average for the past week, with just over nine weeks left until Israel’s 20th Knesset election. 

According to the Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average of six polls from four polling companies, the average breakdown of Knesset seats is as follows (seats in current Knesset are in square brackets, seats in previous poll are in round brackets):

1st 24.0 (23.2) [18] Likud

2nd 23.6 (23.6) [21] Labor+Livni

3rd 15.3 (16.0) [11] Jewish Home

4th 10.3 (09.1) [19] Yesh Atid

5th 08.6 (09.0) [–] Kulanu

6th 07.5 (07.5) [07] United Torah Judaism (UTJ)

7th 06.6 (06.7) [13] Yisrael Beytenu

8th 06.1 (06.5) [06] Meretz

9th 06.0 (05.8) [10] Shas

10th 03.1 (03.3) [02] Ha’am Itanu

11th 11.0 (11.0) [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al Balad (not all polls have them united)

12th 00.0 (00.1) [02] Kadima

The parties that have not ruled out a coalition with Binyamin Netanyahu total 68.8, down from 69.6 last week, but up from 61 in the current Knesset.

The parties that have ruled out a coalition with Netanyahu total 51.1, up from 50.3 last week but down from 59 in the present Knesset.

Even if it does not turn out to be the largest party, Likud under Netanyahu is the only party that can conceivably form a governing coalition, but being the largest single party would make it more difficult for President Reuven Rivlin to give Labor the first shot at assembling a coalition.

Yesh Atid gained 1.2 seats in the course of the week, and Likud gained 0.8. Jewish Home dropped 0.7.

According to Jeremy Saltan, who produces the Poll of Polls – and is also a Jewish Home insider – Likud regained its #1 position thanks to a post-primary surge, but the combined Labor-Livni list has stood its ground in the polls. “Herzog is hoping for a Labor post-primary bump this week, but that will most likely be dependent on what list Labor voters choose. Livni has less than three weeks to decide on her party’s reserved slots and is expected to take into account the result of the Labor primary.”

“The combined Likud-Jewish Home-Kulanu-Yisrael Beytenu-UTJ-Shas bloc has gradually dropped over the last 6 weeks,” Saltan adds. “Eli Yishai not passing the threshold in most polls lowers the combined totals of Netanyahu’s potential partners.”

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