Population Forecast: More Hareidim by 2059

December 12, 2011  

The Central Bureau of Statistics released a population forecast on Monday which predicts a significant rise in Israel’s hareidi-religious population by the year 2059.

The forecast was prepared at the request of the Finance Ministry’s Budget Division, which had sought a long-term forecast of Israel’s population for the coming fifty years. The forecast was divided into three main parts: low population growth, medium population growth and high population growth.

According to the forecast, between 13 and 20 million people will live in Israel in 2059. According to the high population growth forecast, non-hareidi Jews will make up about 37% of the population in 2059, the Arab population will make up about 20% of citizens, and the hareidi-religious population will grow to make up about 41% of Israeli citizens.

In contrast, data from 2009 showed that non-hareidi Jews made up 70% of the population and hareidim only made up about 10%.

The study notes that “it should be remembered that a population forecast is a forecast of the people’s behavior, and people may change their behavior when they see its consequences.”

As such, the study noted, the forecast will only be accurate if past trends continue. “One of the significant assumptions in making the projections was the assumption that net migration will be zero. However, it is reasonable to expect that factors will pull and push the country and the world over the next 50 years, leading to increased periods of aliyah or, alternatively, increased immigration to places outside of Israel.”

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