Leading Analyst: Why Israel Could Attack Iran Before November

August 5, 2012  

If the Obama administration still vehemently opposes an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities for fear of hampering Obama’s chances for reelection, the latest Debka’s report claims that Teheran is closer than ever to an atomic bomb.

“The months of negotiations with the six world powers were happily used by Iran for great strides toward bringing its nuclear weapon program to fruition”, Debka asserts.

The world knew that Tehran produced low-enriched uranium for four nuclear warheads in the fortified bunker in Fordo. It  knew also that the centrifuges are enriching uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent. But according to Debka, uranium levels have crept past 20 percent in expanded quantities.

“The six powers are understandably reluctant to admit that in the time bought by negotiations, Iran was able to refine uranium up to 30 percent grade or even a higher and go into advanced preparations for 65 percent grade enrichment. Now the Iranians are well on the way to an 80-90 percent weapons grade”. This percent is the weaponization of the nuclear cycle.

That is why Israel could launch a preemptive operation against Iran before the US presidential election in November.

One could put it another way, as the former Israeli Mossad director, Ephraim Halevi did, saying to the New York Times, “if I were an Iranian I would be very worried in the next 12 months”.

“The period before the US elections is the best for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities”, asserts one of Israel’s leading analysts, Efraim Inbar, head of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and one of the informal advisors to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an interview for Arutz Sheva.

“The diplomatic talks failed, the sanctions are not working, only a military operation can stop Iran’s atomic program. We already stopped Iraq and Syria’s nuclear programs. We will take into consideration only our security and Jewish survival, because a nuclearized Iran would be an immense threat for the Jewish State”.

Inbar attacks the “bizzarre red line” of Obama’s administration on Iran, which is an order by Iranian leadership to build a bomb. “If you wait so long, the Iranian program will become immune to an attack”, he says.

He also criticizes Europe, which used the talks to stop the Israeli strike on Iran’s atomic program. “It’s even worse than Munich’s 1938, then Europe was willing to use force, while today nobody wants to fight anymore”.

In Israel, Inbar explains, “nobody believes in the sanctions, while there are those, like the former Mossad’s head Meir Dagan, who believe that covert operations would have been better to abort the Iranian program. The Americans are now trying to be our babysitter, but the last decision will be taken in Jerusalem by Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu.”

“The two Israeli leaders have now to determine whether Israel can trust the recent US’ promise to thwart Iran’s atomic ambitions in case the sanctions prove to be insufficient – or launch a unilateral Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic.

“In the first case, everything would be postponed to the next spring. Otherwise, the sirens will wake up the Israelis one day within the next three months, food cans will quickly disappear from the supermarkets, doors and windows will be sealed and the Home Front Command will instruct Israelis to enter into shelters. The rest will be history.”

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