Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress has, to say the least, been controversial. Before he has taken the podium and begun to speak, analysts are wondering if his mere presence could finish unraveling the US-Israel relationship that has been said to be fraying over the last six years.
Dr. Jonathan Rynhold of the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies is not inclined to say that the relationship is doomed, however difficult things have become between the personalities of President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. He is more concerned though that as Netanyahu takes the podium, he might have weakened his ability to reach Congressional Democrats.
“If anything, it has made it more difficult for the Prime Minister to use Congress to pressure the Administration because he’s lost a lot of Congressional Democrats. He’s played right into President Obama’s hand, being able to frame this as a partisan political attack on his administration.”
He noted that the Democratic Party is not monolithic by any means – roughly a third of Congressional Democrats are centrists who might be inclined to join a Republican-leaning vote on issues like sanctions against Iran. But if the party is in discord, it will be difficult to cross the aisle.
“Bipartisanship is like the O-Zone layer. If you find a hole, you have to repair it quickly or there will take a long time to repair the rift. If you lose the Dems (Democrats), you’re suddenly left making it a partisan issue.”
He says that the defense relationship between the two countries though is much stronger than either leader to dismantle even if they wanted to. The two countries will continue to consult each other and the US will continue to sell Israel weaponry (and advanced weaponry at that), but the Obama Administration could continue to relax defending Israel on the diplomatic front.
When asked what could improve things, he suggests that the Prime Minister might benefit “if he has Labor in the government. That would definitely help. If the government’s backing of two states is serious, then the Prime Minister’s overall foreign policy will be taken seriously.”
But he doesn’t discount the real possibility that the Prime Minister won’t be dependent on that sort of scenario. When asked if there would be any thinking in either government that this latest spat should motivate a change in the relationship, he was pessimistic.
“We’re beyond the point where the two governments can improve things between them on their own. Without common interest, it’s hard to see how things will improve.”
Yet, he was quick to point to good chance a number of common interests could push off pressure on the Prime Minister.
“If the Iran deal falls through or ISIS seriously threatens Jordan, the equation changes. Yitzhak Shamir and George H W Bush had a terrible relationship, but Shamir’s coordination with Bush during the Gulf War improved things for a while. Mahmoud Abbas could also balance the equation. If he continues with his ICC move, he could equally frustrate the White House.”
The issues of Iran and ISIS, which seemed to have caught the United States in a bind on how to handle both rivals, have also pushed the Arab governments of the region to take issue with the Obama Administration on similar issues as the Israeli Prime Minister.
“They don’t see him being assertive enough. If we compare the relationship Netanyahu has with Obama and the relationship other Middle Eastern governments have with his administration, we realize theirs are equally strained, but less public.”
Assuming that the US and Iran do strike an undesirable deal, he wondered what Israel’s policy going forward would be. What might be critical is just how much time Iran would need to make a bomb based on the conditions of the final deal. If it is long enough, Israel’s defense establishment might consider it “livable.” But he noted there is a major difference between being a year from the bomb and only six months. Israel will likely become the deal’s fiercest critic, but if Israel presents itself as holding Iran to it, it could change perceptions of Israel’s arguments.
“You can be sure Israel will be monitoring things on the ground very closely. If they see a hint of Iranian cheating (on the deal), they would immediately raise a flag.”
