With elections in the air, pollsters are already working frantically to predict how Israel’s 20th Knesset will look come March 18.
Will a “right-wing” bloc mobilize to ensure a staunchly nationalist government? Does it even need to? Or will the flagging Israeli Left mobilize a bloc of their own – an eventuality which one recent poll suggests could just about steal the election?
If a series of polls carried out last week accurately reflect the sentiments of the Israeli electorate, the question is not “if” the Right will form a majority, but how large that majority will be.
The results of 12 separate polls taken last week from nine separate polling companies were aggregated by Knesset insider and Jewish Home party member Jeremy Saltan, and revealed a right-wing bloc (including nationalist and hareidi parties) would receive anything from 84-70 seats.
Taking an overall average of the performance of the largest parties, Likud would be the largest with 23 seats, followed by the Jewish Home party (16), Labor (13), Yisrael Beytenu (11), Moshe Kahlon’s new party and Yesh Atid (both with 9 seats), Shas and UTJ (both with 7) and Meretz (6). Tzipi Livni’s party would not make it into the Knesset.
Of course, such polls conducted months before the vote are to be taken with a healthy pinch of salt. And, as 2013’s general elections aptly illustrated with the unexpected success of Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, such predictions are always fraught with risk in Israel’s boisterous and notoriously unpredictable voting public.
In particular, the presence of wildcard “centrist” parties – most recently Kadima, Yesh Atid and now Moshe Kahlon’s new party – always have the potential to harness the ever-present “protest vote” and surprise even the most informed of political analysts.
It also remains to be seen what alliances, if any, will be made among right- or left-wing parties, and where (if at all) Moshe Kahlon’s new “centrist” party would position itself.
A joint Arab list – reportedly being considered in response to the new, higher Knesset threshold – could also impact the results in favor of the Left bloc.
