Likud continues to top Labor Friday, according to the latest in a flurry of polls released by the major Israeli news agencies this week – as the public strays toward supporting the largest parties in the 20th Knesset.
Likud edged out Labor, according to the TNS poll for Walla! News, at 27 and 26 seats, respectively.
Far behind is Jewish Home, which ties for third with the united Arab parties at 12 seats each.
Jewish Home is suffering a major fall in seats, according to the latest polls, down from a projected 16-18 seats in surveys earlier this month; the downward spiral has been linked to drama relating to Naftali Bennett’s reserving the number eight spot for ex-soccer star Eli Ohana, who stepped down amid a wave criticism.
In the so-called Center bloc, Yesh Atid is above Kulanu, at 8 and 7 seats. Yisrael Beytenu has made a quiet comeback with six seats, up from a meager four earlier this week.
Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism are projected to gain 7 seats each, with Eli Yishai’s Yachad – Ha’am Itanu passing the threshold at 4 seats. It is unclear if that figure takes into account the recent addition of Otzma Yehudit’s Baruch Marzel to the list.
Neck-and-neck for coalition
While recent results project the greater likelihood of a voter victory for the right wing, the race is still tight to form a coalition.
According to these results, Likud has a slight edge, as a pact with Jewish Home and Ha’am Itanu – the two other parties most likely to form a Likud coalition – would gain a total of 43 seats.
Labor is still close behind with a 42-seat pact, however, between Labor, the Arab list, and Meretz. Yisrael Beytenu has said it will not sit together with Meretz.
Walla! presents an alternative solid bloc for the Left, swapping the Arab parties for Yesh Atid; this would gain even fewer seats, at just 38; it adds that both haredi parties (Shas and UTJ, at 14 seats combined) and Kulanu (8) seats and Yisrael Beytenu (6) seats are the “swing” parties of the hour critical to forming a coalition.
A majority of 61 seats are needed to form a coalition.
Yesh Atid is not likely to sit in a Likud government, after Chairman Yair Lapid was booted out of the 19th Knesset for reportedly staging a “putsch” attempt against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu despite multiple reprimands, thus reducing the right-wing center swing to 13 seats.
Jewish Home in trouble?
Walla!, like a competing Ma’ariv poll published hours earlier, asked respondents on their opinion of Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett, and his handling of the party list.
This week, Ohana dropped out of the race after a controversy erupted over his candidacy, during which MK Zevulun Kalfa quit and was locked out of the Jewish Home party by Bennett. Yesha Council chairman Danny Dayan, number 20 on the list, also dropped out shortly thereafter.
A full 29% of respondents stated that Bennett “had handled the composition of the list poorly,” with 26% answering he handled the crisis “very poorly.”
Just 15% of respondents thought he handled the list “well,” with 9% saying he handled it “very well.”
All in all, 425 respondents answered the poll, with a 4.8% margin of error.
